California Earthquake Forecast Update

US Geological Survey, California Geological Survey, and Southern California Earthquake Center Collaborate on New Forecast

A new earthquake forecast for California has been released by the US Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The forecast, which was published in the journal Nature, provides a comprehensive assessment of the probability of large earthquakes occurring in California over the next 30 years.

Key Findings of the Forecast

• The probability of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake occurring in California in the next 30 years is 72%
• The probability of a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake occurring in California in the next 30 years is 15%
• The most likely place for a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake to occur in California is the San Andreas Fault
• The most likely place for a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake to occur in California is the Cascadia Subduction Zone

The forecast also takes into account the potential impact of climate change on earthquake activity. The researchers found that climate change is likely to increase the frequency of large earthquakes in California, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Implications of the Forecast

The new forecast has important implications for earthquake preparedness in California. The forecast can be used to develop more targeted earthquake preparedness plans and to make better decisions about where to build new infrastructure.

The forecast also highlights the need for continued research on earthquake science. The more we know about earthquakes, the better we can prepare for them and reduce their impact.